September is one of the big two months of the year for new car sales, as many customers want the new number plates that change each March and September. As a result, it’s a good month for taking the temperature of the car industry – and the results were lukewarm if we’re being kind.
Data published by the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) this morning shows that the overall market improved by 1% over the same month last year, which in itself was nothing to write home about. But, as has become the norm, this was entirely thanks to growth from fleet registrations, which were up 4%. Private new car sales were down 4% on last September – which in itself was a terrible month…
September 2024 was the worst September for new car sales this century, with the exception of 2022 when many car manufacturers struggled to supply vehicles due to chronic parts shortages resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. This year, there was no such excuse for car makers – people simply didn’t buy many new cars.
These poor results followed a pattern that has been prevalent all year long, with private new car sales at their lowest levels since the twice-yearly March and September number plate changes came into effect in 1999. Even 2020, when dealerships were closed for months during Covid, was better than 2024 has been so far.
EV sales growing despite loud negativity
It was a record month for new EV registrations in September, despite the best attempts of some media titles, and the industry itself, to undermine them.
The SMMT is leading a campaign for the government to throw more money at the car industry to boost EV sales, and the best way to do that is to make EV sales sound worse than they really are. This is then picked up by anti-EV media titles like the Telegraph and the Times, which amplify any negative angles to suit their ageing reader demographics.
New EV sales continue to grow, and that growth is still accelerating. However, it’s not growing as fast as the industry or the government would like and there has been increasing levels of discounting involved to sustain that growth. But they are still growing.
Private new car sales across all fuel types (petrol, diesel, hybrid and EV) are down 9% year-to-date compared to 2023, but private new EV sales are only down by 6%, so they’re outperforming other types of vehicle – even if that means doing less badly rather than doing really well.
In previous years, when the market was struggling but still doing better than this year, the SMMT was calling for a reintroduction of the government’s scrappage scheme to encourage new car sales. But that’s not helpful now because the car manufacturers all have a requirement to sell an increasing number of new EVs each year. So the lobbying is now specifically for money to boost private EV sales, even though they’re doing better than private sale of other cars.
Registrations of petrol and diesel sales were both down, while numbers for hybrids and EVs were strongly up. Under those circumstances, it’s hard to see the government agreeing to industry demands for a 10% cut in VAT on new EVs. Other suggestions, like reassessing the luxury car threshold for road tax and reducing VAT on public charging, have merit and it will be interesting to see if the chancellor has anything to offer in the upcoming budget later this month.
Good month, bad month
Despite a flat market overall (1% growth on last September), there was considerable variation in the performance of car brands across the marketplace.
It was a good month for BYD, Cupra, Genesis, Honda, Hyundai, Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Skoda, Smart and Volvo. All of these brands outperformed the overall market by at least 10% (so achieved sales growth of at least 11%)
Meanwhile, there was no September champagne for Abarth, Bentley, Citroën, DS Automobiles, Fiat, Ford, GWM Ora, Ineos, Jaguar, Maserati, MG, Mini, Peugeot, Porsche, Subaru, Suzuki, Tesla or Vauxhall. All of these brands underachieved against the overall market by at least 10% (so had registrations at leat 9% below last September).
That means that the following brands ended up more or less where we’d expect them to be: Alfa Romeo, Alpine, Audi, BMW, Dacia, KGM (nee SsangYong), Kia, Lexus, Mazda, Nissan, Renault, SEAT, Toyota and Volkswagen. All of these brands recorded results within 10% (up or down) of their numbers from last year.
As usual, Volkswagen was the biggest-selling brand in September, ahead of Kia and Audi. Land Rover had the largest increase in sales numbers, registering almost 3,000 more cars this year than the same month last year. Ford took the biggest hit, nearly 5,000 cars down compared to last September.
Kia Sportage closes in on the lead
The Kia Sportage topped the sales charts in September with a very strong month, bringing it ever-closer to the Ford Puma in the race for the overall 2024 sales title. With three months to go, fewer than 600 units separate the two.
The Puma was still the second-best-selling car in September, but a fair way behind the Sportage. The similarly sized Nissan Juke was third for the month, while the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling EV in equal fourth place with the Hyundai Tucson. The Volkswagen Polo and Volkswagen Golf were the only non-SUV models in the top ten.
In year-to-date sales, the Juke has overtaken the Golf for fourth place, while the Tucson has overtaken the Audi A3 for sixth. The bottom half of the top ten is still quite close, so expect further shifts as we close out the year.