New car registrations had another slow month in November, with both private sales and fleet registrations down on the same month last year.
According to data published this week by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), total registrations were down 2% compared to last November, with private sales down 3% and fleets down 1%. That was actually a better result for private sales, which are averaging a 9% decline year-to-date, while fleets are still 13% up on 2023 in year-to-date numbers.
As usual, several factors were at play in the overall results, but at least part of the slowdown is due to some car manufacturers limiting sales of their petrol/diesel/hybrid cars to help hit their mandated EV sales targets. With EVs having to make up a net 22% of overall sales, some brands have found it easier to stop supplies of petrol cars rather than sell more EVs.
Private new car sales still declining, but at a slower rate
It’s likely that 2024 will end up being the worst year for private new car sales in a quarter of a century. That’s due to a combination of factors, including more people being eligible for company cars or Motability vehicles, or taking leases rather than personal car finance. But it’s also a sign of higher new car prices and interest rates, which is pushing more people out of new cars and into used cars.
After 11 months of the year, private new car sales are down 9% on last year. That’s an improvement in recent months, as it was a 12% decline at the half-year point. But there appears to be no sign of improvement as we look towards 2025.
Great month for EVs, with caveats
While the overall market was down 2%, electric car sales were up 58% on last November’s numbers. On the surface, that’s great news for car makers who need to hit their targets. In reality, it was still good but a bit more complex than it seems.
Firstly, last November was a very poor month for EV sales (down 17% on the year before), with both Tesla and Polestar (both 100% EV brands) recording poor results. So part of this November’s growth was simply catching up what was lost last year.
Secondly, several manufacturers were holding back deliveries of EVs late last year to give them a head start on 2024, so their results were down as well. That’s what we’re also seeing now for petrol cars, which were down 18% on the same month last year. Diesel sales were also down 10%, but that’s pretty normal these days.
Thirdly, there has certainly been a significant amount of self-registration activity going on for particular brands. That means car manufacturers and dealers register cars to themselves as company vehicles, dealer demonstrators, service loan vehicles and so on, rather than as legitimate sales to real customers.
The net result of all of this, however, is that most car brands are believed to have hit their net 22% sales targets with one month still to go. Some will still need another big push in December, but the pressure is off others. Although the overall market share only shows about 18%, car brands get credit for other low CO2 cars like plug-in hybrids and regular hybrids, which comes off their 22% overall target.
Good month, bad month
Although the overall market was down slightly, there was considerable variation in the results for different car brands.
It was a good month for Alpine, Bentley, BYD, Cupra, Dacia, Fiat, Jeep, Hyundai, Lexus, MG, Mini, Peugeot, Polestar, Renault, Skoda, Tesla and Volvo. All of these brands outperformed the overall new car market by at least 10% (so sales were up at least 8% on last November).
Meanwhile, things were less rosy for Alfa Romeo, Audi, BMW, DS Automobiles, Ford, Honda, Ineos, Jaguar, KGM (nee SsangYong), Maserati, Mazda, Smart, Subaru, Suzuki, Toyota and Vauxhall. All of these brands were at least 10% behind the overall market (so sales were down at least 12%).
That means that the following brands were more or less where we expected them to be: Abarth, Citroën, Genesis, GWM Ora, Kia, Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Porsche, SEAT and Volkswagen. All of these brands were within a 10% margin of the overall market.
Overall, Volkswagen was once again the UK’s best-selling brand, ahead of BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Ford. Tesla was the biggest winner, with about 2,900 more cars registered in November 2024 than the same month in 2023. The biggest loser in absolute terms was Vauxhall, with sales down nearly 4,400 on the same month last year.
With just one month to go, Volkswagen is a clear leader at the top of the table, with BMW edging Audi for second place. Kia is fourth, with Ford fifth.
Mini Cooper jumps to the top spot in November
The Mini Cooper topped the sales charts in November, which is a first for the all-new model launched earlier this year. For whatever reason, the Mini hatch (now officially called the Cooper) always seems to perform well in November, generally outperforming its year-to-date results. There’s probably a reason, but we haven’t asked…
In second place was the Nissan Qashqai, making it a British top two for the first time in a long time. The Tesla Model Y had a strong month to place third, while the Kia Sportage ate further into the Ford Puma’s year-long lead in fourth.
With just one month to run, it’s a very tight battle between the Puma and Sportage for the overall sales crown. Since June, Kia has closed the gap down from more than 2,200 cars to little over 100 cars with only December left to go, and Kia certainly has more wiggle room to register extra vehicles if necessary. Ford is hamstrung by its poor EV sales this year, and is one of the brands struggling to get close to the 22% minimum EV sales target. That will limit the number of Pumas it can sell in December, unless it decides to stop selling other models like the Kuga so it can register more Pumas.
We’ll have to see how it plays out, but our bet is on the Kia Sportage taking the title. Come back in early January to find out!
